“Despite the ongoing consolidation, this trend signals more difficult times ahead. By 2028, the state debt could reach the €100 billion mark, which, in relation to the planned state budget expenditure, would represent almost four times its revenues. Within three years, the cost of debt servicing alone could exceed €2.6 billion,” said Ľubomír Andrassy, President of the national authority for external audit.

In the past three years, the burden of consolidation has been carried mainly by citizens, while the state has failed to reform the functioning of state and public institutions. Although savings have been formally achieved in operating costs and public sector employment, there has been no fundamental reform of the largest expenditure areas — social welfare, pensions and public healthcare. Even multi-billion-euro investments in digitalisation and e-government have not made state management more efficient. As a result, the efficiency of the state has deteriorated, leaving Slovakia in a worse position than in 1996.

The World Bank’s Government Effectiveness Index shows that Slovakia is the only country among the Visegrad Four whose score fell between 2014 and 2023 — from 0.8 to 0.2 — ranking the country 24th out of 27 EU member states.

The largest share of expenditure – almost 20% of the total budget – will go to social security. Spending on pension insurance has doubled over the past ten years, from €6.4 billion to €12.6 billion, and is projected to reach €13.3 billion in 2026. In contrast, family support will fall by more than €100 million, mainly in benefits such as child allowance, parental allowance and birth grants.

At the same time, Slovakia has recorded the lowest birth rate since becoming an independent state – only 8.5 births per 1,000 inhabitants, the lowest figure in the past 30 years. Nearly one million people in Slovakia are now at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Regional disparities remain stark: while only 8.6% of people are at risk in the Bratislava region, the figure reaches 28% in Prešov region. The most vulnerable groups are single parents with one or more children – so-called single-parent households – one in three of which faces the threat of poverty.

In 2026, more than €10.6 billion is expected to flow into the healthcare system, representing an increase of €935 million compared to this year. To cover the additional expenditure, the government plans to use €358 million from the largest revenue-side consolidation measure – a one percentage point increase in employees’ health insurance contributions. Most of this increase will go towards wages for healthcare workers and the cost of medicines, without any clear benefits for patients.

According to a study published in The Lancet, Slovakia ranks among the EU countries with the lowest healthcare efficiency – in 2022 it was even lower than in 1995. If Slovakia were to use its healthcare resources efficiently, the average citizen could live 3.5 years longer in good health.

“The Ministry of Health has abolished the budgetary breakdown of nearly €9 billion in public health insurance according to types of healthcare directly within the state budget, resulting in a loss of transparency and oversight over the use of these funds,” notes the SAO President, adding that the accumulated debt of state hospitals reached €1.3 billion in the first half of 2025. Another serious risk is the ageing medical workforce – more than a quarter of doctors are over the age of 65, particularly general practitioners and paediatricians.

Fiscal consolidation on the expenditure side lacks clear contours. Of the planned savings, only €375 million is specified in detail, while local governments are expected to reduce their operating expenditures by 10% for municipalities and 15% for regional authorities across the board. Another high-risk element of the consolidation package is the €420 million allocated for energy aid, as the state had originally assumed that this temporary and non-systemic measure would be financed from EU funds. However, the European Union does not allow the use of its resources for energy price compensation, meaning that the burden will ultimately fall on the state budget.

The SAO has repeatedly pointed out that the state lacks a strategy for managing and utilising its assets. At the same time, there has been an extreme increase in the government’s dependence on external services and rented premises. Expenditure on rent rose by 21% year-on-year, and the state now pays more than €100 million annually for leased office space, while hundreds of state-owned properties are left vacant or deteriorating.

A striking paradox is that the state previously sold the Presscentrum building on the Danube riverbank in Bratislava, and now rents offices in the same building from a private company for the Ministry of Investments, Regional Development and Informatization, as well as for other state institutions, costing tens of millions of euros. Similarly, private rental premises are used by the Ministry of Tourism and Sport, the Ministry of Education, the Statistical Office, and the Authority for Spatial Planning.

Fiscal consolidation thus continues to rely primarily on revenue increases, while spending cuts lag behind. These are short-term measures with no lasting impact on the sustainability of public finances.

Furthermore, the draft budget law has become an increasingly closed document, prepared without consultation with experts or social partners – in contradiction to OECD principles promoting a transparent and inclusive budgetary process.

“A budget cannot be merely a technical exercise for civil servants; it must be an open process in which citizens, experts and, above all, social partners have the right to participate actively. Such openness is key to strengthening oversight of how public resources are used,” explains the SAO President.

Budget transparency requires active communication – the state must explain its objectives, priorities and real results. Everyone – not only the government, but also members of parliament and the public – should have access to comprehensive information to assess whether public resources are being allocated in line with the public interest.

Slovakia’s economic growth remains weak – projected at only 0.8% for this year and 1.3% for 2026. The outlook is affected by the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, and the introduction of restrictive measures such as tariffs imposed by the United States.

The 2026 state budget envisages general government expenditure of €67.9 billion, nearly half of which will be consumed by the state itself. With expected general government revenues of €62 billion, this results in a deficit of €5.9 billion.

The SAO notes that the additional financial resources generated through consolidation are being absorbed by non-systemic social measures, such as the 13th pension (€910 million), early retirement pensions (€260 million), free school meals (€185 million), and free train travel, along with the continuation of temporary energy aid. These expenditures limit the scope for genuine reforms and increase the risk of consolidation fatigue.

Without substantial systemic changes, targeted social benefits, and efficient expenditure management, the consolidation process may soon reach its limits, leaving the public finance deficit persistently high.

A further risk for 2026 stems from the government’s legal obligation to submit a balanced budget. However, both the SAO and the European Commission estimate that, despite repeated consolidation efforts, the deficit will still reach 5.1% of GDP in 2027.